Ending the prolonged leadership suspense following the Assembly elections held in November, Rajasthan finally got its new Chief Minister today as BJP’s Bhajanlal Sharma took oath at a high-profile ceremony with PM Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah in attendance. Sharma is the first Brahmin CM in over three decades at the helm in Rajasthan.
As significant as the appointment of an upper caste face as the chief minister in Rajasthan is, the appointment of two deputy chief ministers in Rajasthan is equally noteworthy. Rajasthan has seen five Deputy CMs since 1952. However, this is for the first time that the state will have two Deputy CM. In Diya Kumari and Prem Chand Bairwa – the two Deputy CMs – BJP is readying the roadmap for 2024 Lok Sabha Elections. While Chief Minister Bhajanlal Sharma is a Brahmin, Deputy CM Prem Chand Bairwa comes from Dalit community.
A woman hailing from a prominent royal family, Diya Kumari is often seen as a “people’s princess”, an image that fits well with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s positioning. In her, the BJP sees a potential that can shore up its electoral fortune for the upcoming Lok Sabha polls.
Going beyond state election success
BJP’s win in Rajasthan elections may have given the party a much-needed boost ahead of the general elections but scratch the surface and one can see how close the contest was. The BJP did gain 42 seats as compared to the last Assembly polls, but the vote share increase remains dismal. A look at the poll data shows that the BJP registered just a 3 per cent increase in the vote share in the Rajasthan elections. It shows that the local ecosystem is very important, and things can change completely in the Lok Sabha polls. The Congress, on the other hand, lost the contest on around 30 seats, but the party managed to keep its vote share intact at a robust 39 per cent.
The regional dynamics at play
Rajasthan has the pattern of voting the incumbent out of power. The Rajasthani voters can be divided in clear geographical clusters. The state polls, which have remained a bi-polar contest over the years, have seen both BJP and Congress concentrating on these respective clusters. In these polls, the BJP dominated and won most of the seats in the south and made inroads in the west. The Congress, on the other hand, bagged most of the seats in the north but lost major ground in the east Rajasthan.
Diya Kumar, who contested from the Jaipur division, bagged over 60 per cent of the votes in the polls. The BJP would like to replicate the success and people’s connect that Diya Kumari has in the Lok Sabha elections. In comparison with the 2018 elections, BJP did exceedingly well in the Jaipur division. What’s more is that despite getting less vote share, the BJP managed to beat Congress. So, what happened here? The BJP was able to transfer the vote share of the Independent candidates and smaller parties. Hence, despite improving its vote share, the Congress lost out on several seats.
If one looks at the state division, the BJP scored big gains in Jaipur and Bharatpur divisions. In Jaipur division, it gained 8 per cent vote share. In Bharatpur division, the BJP saw an increase of 7 percent in terms of vote share. The caste dynamics also shows how close the contest was. Both the BJP and the congress got 38.8 per cent and 39.9 per cent votes in the general category. While the vote share of SC community was same for both parties, more voters of ST community voted for the BJP.
The women voters
Rajasthan has a better average of voter turnout than the national numbers. Over the years, the turnout has been hovering over 70 per cent for the past couple of elections. In this, the women voters have also increased their participation. This year, more women voted than men in the Rajasthan assembly polls. Women voters registered 74.72 per cent turnout, while 74.53 per cent of the men voted in the state polls. Women voters can change the electoral tide for any party.
This time, BJP won 50 seats where women voted more than men, whereas Congress got success in 30 constituencies. While the women are voting more than men, their representation in the Assembly has gone down over the years. While 2018 saw 24 MLAs in the Rajasthan Assembly, 2023 witnessed marginal drop in the numbers. This year, 20 women MLAs will be sitting in the state Assembly.
In the last election, the BJP swept the desert state by winning all 25 Lok Sabha seats. With the marked close contest in the state polls, it would be tough for the BJP to maintain this stunning strike rate. It is in this context that the appointment of Diya Kumar holds great significance. As a woman Deputy CM, she can not only influence the women voters, she can also help the party in increasing its vote share in other divisions as well.