India has emerged as the most resilient economy among the top ten leading economies in the post pandemic years of 2022, 2023, according to an analysis conducted by the PHD Research Bureau, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry. The research report “Geopolitical Spillovers and Resilience of the Indian Economy” by PHDCCI was based on five key economic indicators, GDP growth, export growth, total investment, gross national savings, and debt to GDP ratio. As these indicators are vulnerable and have many domestic and global headwinds, the industry body decided and chose these indicators to check the resilience of the leading economies, said Sanjeev Agrawal, President , PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry. The pre-pandemic years (2018, 2019), pandemic years (2020, 2021), post-pandemic years (2022, 2023), and outlook for 2024 and 2025 have been observed based on their performance in the leading economic indicators, he said.
India’s resilience, PHDCCI said, has improved from second position in pre-pandemic and pandemic years to first position in post-pandemic and futuristic years. China’s resilience slipped from first position in pre-pandemic and pandemic years to second position in post-pandemic and futuristic years, said Sanjeev Agrawal.
Going forward, according to the International Monetary Fund‘s data, the Indian economy’s future trajectory remains strong, and India will be in first place in terms of resilience in 2024 and 2025, said Dr Ranjeet Mehta, Executive Director, PHD Chamber. In the futuristic resilient trajectory, India’s 1st position will be followed by China, Russia, Germany, France, Canada, Japan, Italy, the USA, and the UK, said Dr Ranjeet Mehta.
The size of the Indian economy is expected to surpass $4 trillion by 2024-25, $5 trillion by 2026-27, and $7 trillion in 2030, said Dr SP Sharma, Chief Economist, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry. The fundamentals of the Indian economy have been strengthened more in the post-pandemic years on the back of various economic, business, and socio-economic reforms undertaken by the government, said Dr SP Sharma.