Lok Sabha elections 2024 survey: The Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party may script history when the nation heads into the Lok Sabha elections in 2024 with opinion polls suggesting his return for a thirs consecutive term in office as Prime Minister of India. The feat, if the predictions hold true, would put Modi at par with Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first and only Prime Minister to have the distinction of serving in office for three straight terms.
As per the survey, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is predicted to win 323 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections while the INDIA bloc of 28 national and regional parties may settle at 163 seats in the 543-member Lower House of Parliament. The Congress, which has positioned itself as the leader of the umbrella alliance, is expected to be limited to 52-72 seats.
In the Lok Sabha elections held in 2019, the NDA bagged 353 seats with BJP pocketing 303 seats on its own. The Congress, on the other hand, won 52 seats in the last Lok Sabha election, marginally higher than the 44 seats it won in the 2014 polls when it registered its lowest tally ever. The predicted tally of other parties stands at 24-25 seats of the YSRCP, 20-24 seats for the Trinamool Congress, 13-15 seats for the Biju Janata Dal, 3-5 seats for the Bharat Rashtra Samiti, 4-7 seats for the Aam Aadmi Party and 66-76 seats for Others.
The BJP’s dominance in the Hindi heartland, as apparent in the election results of the Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan Assembly polls, is likely to continue into the general elections as well. As per the survey, the BJP is slated to bag 70-74 seats in Uttar Pradesh, improving upon the NDA’s 2019 tally of 64 seats (BJP won 62 of them). The INDIA bloc is expected to pocket 4-8 seats in the key state, the BSP 1 and Others 1-3 seats of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in the state.
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Rajasthan is expected to be another clean sweep for the BJP with victories projected in 24-25 of the 25 Lok Sabha seats in the state. The state, which recently voted the BJP back to power, is expected to vote more overwhelmingly for the BJP in the 2024 general elections. In the 2019 polls, the NDA had swept all seats with the BJP pocketing all 24 seats that it contested while ally RLP bagged 1.
The predicted results in other states also paint a favourable picture for the BJP and its NDA partners while severely limiting the impact of the coalition of 28 parties of the INDIA coalition bloc. These numbers, while specific, are based on the voter’s perception of a particular party or leader and can only offer an indication of the thinking of a section of the electorate at the time the opinion poll was held.
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Lok Sabha elections are slated to be held in April-May next year. The poll will be a real test of the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the resilience of the Congress and its other INDIA bloc partners. The term of the 17th Lok Sabha ends in May 2024.