Indian carriers could incur costs of $100-160 million every month and a revenue loss of $280-400 million every four weeks for the grounded fleet for want of spare parts or engine replacements.
According to research and consultancy firm CAPA India, the country is going to be the most severely hit country as the majority of the country’s fleet is powered by Pratt and Whitney’s GTF engine, used by the nation’s largest carrier IndiGo.
By March 2024, IndiGo’s total number of grounded planes could be in excess of 90, while that of Air India could be 25-30.
SpiceJet’s 27 planes could be grounded in the same month. Troubled airline Go First’s fleet of 54 is not expected to take to the skies.
Of Indian carriers’ estimated fleet of 789 aircraft by March 2024, the grounded fleet is expected to be around 200 and operational fleet would be 588.
Anant Singhal, team leader, consulting and research, CAPA India, said, “By the second quarter of the next fiscal, an additional 30-35 GTF-powered aircraft may have to be grounded.”
“These persistent supply chain issues may impact new inductions that are expected in 2025, which may lead to lack of India’s operational fleet,” Singhal added.
The standard cost for any airline on a monthly basis consists of $350,000 of rental costs, maintenance cost of $350,000, staff cost of $200,000 and other operating costs of $100,000, totaling to $1 million.
For a grounded aircraft, the maintenance cost comes down to $150,000 and revised total is $0.8 million. For a grounded fleet with replacement capacity, the total comes to $0.5 million per aircraft.
India is highly dependent on narrow body aircraft, and particularly re-engined aircraft, for planning induction. The financial impact at a very conservative level is $6 million per aircraft per annum, which could be offset by compensation partially.
“The operation impact is already visible with increasing cancellations, network adjustments and deteriorating on time performance,” CAPA India said in a note.
The number of operational aircraft will go down following the guidance issued by market leader IndiGo, which has warned about more aircraft being grounded in the January-March quarter due to Pratt & Whitney engine issues. Already 40 to 50 of its planes are grounded.